Beyond Syria’s civil war
Syria is under an enormous amount of international pressure, their economic sanctions have struck a nerve and the leader is starting to witness key members of his staff begin to defect. Clearly that regime is crumbling, but his willingness to use force against his own people is virtually unmatched today in the middle east which is saying something and he still feels like there’s a clear amount of rope to hang from.
In this environment, the likelihood that the civil war in Syria expands is pretty great with the Russians and Chinese inching towards reaching some form of watered down security resolution that would call for a cease fire and everyone would sort of stop but, seriously, how much is that really going to get us on the ground.
Iranians support the Syrian regime whilst most nations in the region do not, yet no one has a clear idea of what the post Assad Syria looks like. The willingness of anyone international to say ‘Lets have military engagement’, it does not ensure security but it does ensure a proxy war of sorts, which may well hasten the Syrian leaders’ removal but will also result in more violence – so the outcomes of Syria right now are negative, unfortunate and … lets be frank, Libya had a lot of oil, and Syria doesn’t so the right incentives don’t exist for the world’s powers to intervene from a economic nor political angle.